Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat subdued but largely stable during the mid-May to June reporting period ...

In 2024, the San Francisco Fed and the Federal Reserve System Innovation Office launched the EmergingTech Economic Research ...

Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a ...

Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the ...

Zero Lower Bound Probabilities at Different Time Horizons uses prices of fixed-income derivatives to create a daily measure of the likelihood that future short-term interest rates will be constrained ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Invest in your future with the SF Fed internship program at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. As a paid SF Fed intern, you’ll apply your research and analytical skills to projects supporting ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed ...