It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

YR4 has a 2.2% chance of striking Earth in seven years, but recent updates keep pushing the odds in the wrong direction.

Astronomers will have more information later this spring about the asteroid's path and its likelihood of hitting Earth.

YR4 does smash down on the lunar surface, the explosion might be visible from Earth and would leave a new crater on the near side of the moon

Space agencies and thousands of astronomers are working against the clock to determine the trajectory of the body before it becomes too distant to observe in May

Scientists say they expect the asteroid's future trajectory and impact probability to change as astronomers collect and analyze more data.

A newly discovered asteroid named 2024 YR4 now has a 2.2% chance of affecting Earth in 2032 after recent observations.

YR4 has just above a 1% chance of crashing into Earth in 2032, which is why astronomers and space agencies are paying attention to it.

By comparison, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and 70% of all other animal species on Earth around 65 million years ago was roughly 6 to 9 miles wide. Other notable impact events include one in 1908,